2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

We are only a couple months out from the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and AccuWeather has officially released its forecast, according to Claims Journal.

Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1st to November 30th. New Jersey's tropical storm activity (as well as other northeastern coastal states) has historically been between August and late October. We’ve had our fair share of memorable hurricanes, and not to mention, it appears we’ve seen an uptick in tornadic activity and severe weather in recent years.

Here’s what to expect according to Claims Journal and AccuWeather:

• “A new forecast calls for a ‘near- to below-historical-average’ hurricane season in the Atlantic in 2026 with 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes,” and the forecast, “also calls for three to five direct impacts.”

  
  

• “The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for total storms and hurricanes.”

  
  

• “The forecast points to a developing El Niño for holding down overall tropical activity to near or below historical average levels with an expected increase in disruptive wind shear reducing storm activity, especially later in the season. AccuWeather says there is a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season.”

  
  

• “The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept.10. If a Super El Niño occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.”

  
  

• “El Niño seasons produce an average of 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared with 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.”

However, just because it’s an El Niño season, we shouldn’t let our guard down, as warm Atlantic waters can fuel stronger storms.

“‘Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,’ Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather hurricane expert stated. ‘As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.’”

These hurricanes, among other catastrophic weather events, leave homeowners and business owners scrambling to rebuild, but also open the door for fraudulent claims, and fraudulent contractors looking to capitalize on homeowners’ and business owners’ grief, vulnerability, and urgency to get their homes, businesses, and lives back together. Time will tell what this season holds.

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